Compute / GPU
—
concentrating ↑
Foundation Models
—
stable →
AI Infrastructure
—
concentrating ↑
Applications
—
dispersing ↓
Power Concentration Details ⬇ export
| Domain | Trend | Top actors | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | Concentrating | AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud | OpenAI-AWS partnership deepens concentration | |
| Models | Stable | OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind | GPT-5.4 release maintains OpenAI frontier position | |
| Data | Stable | Meta, Google, Microsoft | No material developments this week | |
| Talent | Stable | OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic | No material developments this week | |
| Capital | Stable | Microsoft, Google, Amazon | No material developments this week | |
| Regulatory Access | Dispersing | EU Commission, US Executive Branch, UK Government | Transatlantic regulatory divergence creates forum-shopping o… |
Market Concentration — domain ratings
Persistent-state ratings · last verified 2026-04-28 · 5 domains
| Domain | Rating | Primary actor | Watch signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute / GPU | Extreme | NVIDIA (>80% data centre GPU) | AMD/Intel market share gain >=5% |
| Foundation Models | High | OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta | Open-weight releases; Chinese labs closing gap |
| AI Infrastructure | High-Extreme | AWS, Azure, GCP | Behind-the-meter power agreements; nuclear PPAs |
| AI Applications | Moderate | Sector-specific | Stealth deployment flags M04 |
| AI Safety / Oversight | Low-Fragmented | None dominant | AI Office first enforcement action — August 2026 |
Microsoft/OpenAI structural relationship (Microsoft ~49% revenue share via Azure) is most concentrated combination. Musk v. Altman trial outcome could restructure OpenAI governance. Any restructuring = M14+M03 item.
Concentration Index Score
—
composite across 6 domains · 0–1 scale
Asymmetric Watch-signals
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